Time to Get Off the Swing: Israel Weakening as a Politically Deciding Issue amongst American Jews.

In contemporary American politics the issue of Israeli support has swung votes within the American Jewish population. This has proven powerful in its abilities to decide elections in the past, but with the unveiling of a recent report by Hilary Krieger of the Jerusalem Post, disagreement over US-Israeli relations within the Jewish vote may be declining which could show a halting swing factor. The Israel swing vote is so vital that George Bush went to great lengths to attract Jewish voters concerned with Israel in 2000. He aligned himself with advisors who were specialists in Jewish related foreign affairs. He actively courted a Jewish vote despite his awareness that the Jewish popular vote would inevitably fall to Al Gore. The result was a 10 percent increase from his dad in 1992. In any election that could be the difference in winning office or defeat. In one as close as that one it is at least intriguing to consider how Bush would have fared had he not courted that portion of the Jewish vote.
To very little surprise Obama won the Jewish vote in 2008 in the upper 70 percents. What’s more surprising are recent reports implying a declining relationship between explicitly supporting Israel in American foreign policy and sustaining that portion of the Jewish electorate that has proved amazingly powerful despite their relatively miniscule population. The swing that recent politicians have rarely intrepidly confronted appears on the verge of disappearing. According to this report, there is less separation in the American Jew camp, which should calm the fears of Israel being a deciding factor in elections.
At midnight March 20th Barack Obama started his “Middle Eastern Engagement” with a message welcoming in the Arab New Year. But, more specifically he addressed the Iranian leaders who he hopes to foster peaceful international relationships with despite historical and cultural differences. Although simple in its diplomatic nature and a tiny first step up this mountainous political task, he mentioned how we are all linked by this time of renewal and realizing common dreams. Obama cleverly plays on their season of new beginnings, hoping to ameliorate disastrous political relationships with peaceful intent. However, not so well hidden in this diplomatic game is the glaring fact that such pressure on Iran is perilous ground to trek for the general safety of Israel.
Was this the “change” American Jews voted for? One would think not. US-Iranian engagement must spark fears into the American Jew constituency, especially the ones most associated with the swing factor. The evidence appearing in the Jerusalem Post suggests the contrary and a rapidly declining swing factor before our eyes. Although suspicious in their inabilities to give concrete numbers, the article states that “large majorities of American Jews support Barack Obama's active engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, even if that means exerting pressure and publicly disagreeing with Israel.” The data was collected via an email based survey which clearly limits its credibility, although it is said to have “accurately represented the American Jewish demographics.” Nevertheless, the results are intriguing. Despite Obama’s possible pressure on Iran and the terror this could cause Israel, American Jews are still backing his plans in large numbers. If these numbers are as large as the article indicates and this is not an exaggeration of American Jew beliefs, then days of Israel as an election deciding issue are over.